Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris: Which Stocks Will Benefit?
As we head into the 2024 election, the political landscape has taken shape. On the right, we have Former President Donald Trump with JD Vance as his running mate. On the left, Vice President Kamala Harris is paired with Tim Walz. With President Joe Biden stepping back and observing from the sidelines, the focus now shifts to what a potential victory for either candidate could mean for the stock market.
According to the latest NPR/PBS News Marist poll, Harris currently holds a slight national lead over Trump, with 51% to Trump’s 48%. This lead comes after Trump briefly surged ahead following Biden’s withdrawal from the race in late July. The poll highlights the public's divided views, with Harris leading on issues like abortion and democracy, while Trump maintains an edge on economic concerns, the Middle East, and immigration.
With the race still too close to call, and as unconventional as ever, both candidates have embraced the modern era of campaigning—Trump with the backing of the NELK Boys and Elon Musk on social media, and Harris with pop culture icons like Megan Thee Stallion supporting her. Regardless of who wins, one thing is certain: the stock market will experience significant turbulence. Here's a look at the key stocks that could be impacted depending on the election outcome.
Stocks to Watch This Election Year
Trump Media & Technology Group ($DJT):
Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, was created as a conservative alternative to mainstream social media platforms. If Trump returns to the White House and continues to use Truth Social as his primary platform for public communication, $DJT could see a surge in user engagement and advertising revenue. The media attention and potential strategic partnerships could position $DJT for significant growth. However, Trump's recent activity on X (formerly Twitter), including a potential X Spaces with Elon Musk, leaves the door open for alternative social media strategies.
Rumble ($RUM):
Rumble, a video platform popular among conservative audiences, has already partnered with Trump’s Truth Social. A Trump presidency could further increase Rumble's user base and engagement, making it an attractive investment. The platform’s commitment to free speech and its appeal to conservative content creators could drive up its stock value as the political landscape shifts.
Meta Platforms ($META) and Snap Inc. ($SNAP):
These companies are competitors of TikTok when it comes to social media. Trump has expressed in the past that he favors TikTok, which could mean that he doesn't plan to ban it if he becomes President. from Trump’s stance on TikTok, which he has expressed interest in banning. Additionally, with Elon Musk and Trump showing mutual support, it seems that Donald Trump is favoring all the alternatives to META and SNAP when it comes to social media.
First Solar ($FSLR):
Despite Trump’s skepticism toward the green energy movement, First Solar could benefit from tariffs on Chinese-made solar panels. These tariffs would make First Solar's products more competitive in the U.S. market. Trump's "America First" trade policies could lead to tax benefits, subsidies, and other support for U.S.-based manufacturers like First Solar, allowing them to capture a larger share of the domestic market.
Chevron ($CVX):
As one of America’s largest oil and gas producers, Chevron could thrive under a Trump presidency, with the potential for fewer restrictions on drilling. This would benefit the company by enabling more expansive production and possibly lower corporate tax rates.
Ares Capital ($ARCC):
Ares Capital, along with other specialty finance companies that support middle-market businesses, could see growth if Trump’s stance on lowering interest rates prevails. Lower rates encourage borrowing, which could drive expansion for these companies.
Peninsula Energy ($PENMF):
Trump’s potential plans for a Federal Uranium Security Stockpile could benefit companies like Peninsula Energy, which owns one of America’s largest uranium projects. This penny stock could see significant gains if Trump’s policies prioritize domestic uranium production.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions ($KTOS) and Lockheed Martin ($LMT):
Increased defense spending under a Trump administration would likely benefit defense companies such as Kratos and Lockheed Martin. Lockheed Martin could also benefit if Trump boosts funding for police and domestic security.
Nucor Corporation ($NUE):
Nucor, a key player in the U.S. steel industry, could see growth under Trump’s policies favoring domestic manufacturing. The company’s strong dividend history makes it an attractive option for investors in a pro-manufacturing environment.
Renewable Energy Stocks ($ENPH, $SEDG, $RUN, $NOVA):
Companies like Enphase, SolarEdge, Sunrun, and Sunnova could face challenges if Trump rolls back government subsidies for renewable energy, as he did during his first term. This could lead to decreased market support and a potential downturn for these stocks.
Big Banks (JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America):
The banking sector could experience volatility depending on Trump’s stance on mergers and acquisitions. Investors should keep an eye on policy developments that may impact the financial sector.
The 2024 election is shaping up to be a defining moment for the stock market, with significant implications depending on who wins the presidency. While we still have time before the election, it's crucial to be prepared for all possible outcomes. Investors should stay informed and consider the potential impacts on their portfolios.
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