Major banks, including JPM, Goldman, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America, all report this week alongside Netflix, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson, and Wall Street will be watching closely for any signals on how corporate America is absorbing elevated energy costs.

Markets surged last week after President Trump suspended U.S. military operations against Iran for two weeks, but that relief rally may be starting to come apart already. The probability of a Fed rate cut remains below 20%, and further disruption to energy infrastructure or shipping routes could prolong uncertainty and extend volatility.

The bottom line: we may be in a relief bounce, but the conditions that drove this year's volatility haven't been resolved — they've been paused. Manage your risk accordingly, and treat every setup as if the thesis could be invalidated overnight.

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Broad Market Analysis

/SPX500USD: SP500

The SP500 had an insane comeback last week on the back of peace talks with Iran and the Middle East in general, with the SP500 closing above key support at $6800 to end the week.
For this week, if $6800 can hold as support, look for a move higher to $6850/$6900/$7000/$7035 in the future. Anything over $7035 and expect a move to $7050/$7100/$7250/etc.
If $6800 cannot hold as support this week, look for a move lower down to $6600. Anything below $6600 and expect a retest of $6500/$6400 in the future.

$S5FI: SP500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average

Short term breadth made a beautiful comeback after it bounced off of major support at 20%, which you can see has been a major support level in the past during healthy market conditions.
With that, for this week if 40% can hold as support, look for a move higher to 45%/55%/65% in the future.
If 40% cannot hold as support, look for a move lower down to 35%/30%/20% in the future to test support below.

$S5TH: SP500 Stocks Above 200-Day Average

Long term breadth didn’t bounce off any major support per se, but it did manage to recapture support at 50% to end the week.
With that, if 50% can hold as support this week, look for a move higher to 55%/57.50%/60% in the future. Anything above 60% and expect a retest of 65%.
If 50% cannot hold as support this week, look for a move down to 45%/42.50% in the future. Anything below 42.50% and expect a move to 40%/35%/30% in the future.

$US30: Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow should quite literally be in a museum for a perfect support bounce, with the previous all time high at $45000 being formally regarded as support with a nice move higher.
With that, if the Dow can hold $47000 this week and break over $48000, expect a move to $48500/$49000/$49500/$50000 in the future.
If $47000 cannot hold as support, look for a move lower down to $46000/$45000 to test major support levels below.

$IXIC: Nasdaq Composite

The Nasdaq managed to recapture $22000 support last week, which is the key level of support it has managed to hold for months now.
With that, if $22000 can hold as support going forward, look for a retest of $23000. Anything above $23000 and expect a move to $23500/$23750. Anything above $23750 and expect a major move higher to $24000/$24500/$25000/etc.
If $22000 cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move lower down to $21500/$21000. Anything below $21000 and expect a retest of $20000 in the future.

$US2000: Russell 2000

The Russell managed to also hold its previous all time high as support just like the Dow Jones, with a beautiful move higher last week over $2600 to end the week.
For this week, if $2600 can hold as support, look for a move higher to $2650/$2700/$2730. Anything over $2730 and expect a move to $2750/$2800/$2850/$2900 in the future.
If $2600 cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move lower to retest support below at $2550/$2500/$2475 in the future.

$VIX: Volatility Index

The VIX got denied below $23.50 and $20 support last week, with both levels being formally regarded as resistance once again.
For this week, if $20 remains as resistance, look for a move lower down to $18. Anything below $18 and expect a move to $16/$14 in the future.
If $20 can be broken and held as support, look for a move to $23.50. Anything over $23.50 and expect a move to $25/$27.50/$30 in the future.

$XAUUSD: Spot Gold

Gold managed to hold $4400 over the past few weeks and has continued to push higher with other risk assets over the past few weeks.
For this week, if $4600 can hold as support, look for a move higher to $5000 in the future. Anything over $5000 and expect a move to $5250/$5365 in the future.
If $4600 cannot hold as support this week, look for a move lower down to $4400/$4200 in the future. Anything below $4200 and expect a move to $4000/$3500/ and potentially lower in the future.

$XAGUSD: Spot Silver

Silver managed to close above $75 support last week, which is a good sign for the bulls as long as this level can be held as support.
For this week, if $75 is defended as support, look for a move higher to $80/$85 in the future. Anything above $85 and expect a move to $90/$95 in the future.
If $75 cannot hold as support, look for a move lower down to $70/$65/$60 in the future.

$DXY: US Dollar Index

The US Dollar got rejected from $100 resistance last week, but it managed to close above $98 support.
With that, if $98 can hold as support in the future, look for a retest of $100 in the future. Anything over $100 and expect a move to $101/$102/$103 in the future.
If $98 cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move to $96. Anything below $96 and expect a move to $94 in the future.

$USOIL: Crude Oil

Crude Oil got rejected from $110-$115 resistance last week and officially closed below $100 as well, but it still managed to hold support at $92.50-$95 or so.
For this week, if $92.50 can hold as support, look for a move higher to $100. Anything over $100 and expect a move to $105/$110/$115 in the future.
If $92.50 cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move lower down to $90/$85 in the future. Anything under $85 and expect a move to $82.50/$80/$75 in the future.

$US02Y: US Government Bonds - 2-Year Yield

The 2-Year literally tested major resistance at 4.30% and closed the week at 3.80% major support, showing that the two key levels on this chart are very important to the market.
With that, if 3.80% can hold as support this week, look for a move higher to 4%/4.15%/4.30% in the future.
If 3.80% cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move lower down to 3.60%-3.40% in the future. This range is extremely pivotal to the 2-Year, so expect some consolidation in this range if 3.80% is broken and is held as resistance.

$US10Y: US Government Bonds - 10-Year Yield

The 10-Year managed to hold support last week at 4.20%-4.30%, which is a key level for the 10-Year.
With that, if 4.30% can hold as support this week, look for a move higher to 4.50%/4.60% in the future.
If 4.30% cannot hold as support, look for a move lower down to 4.25%/4.20%. Anything below 4.20% and expect a move to 4.10%/4%/3.90% in the future.

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Technical Analysis

$GOOGL: Google

Google has finally broke out this down trend channel that it was stuck in for months now, giving the monthly the opportunity to break over last month highs. It is now testing previous support, and as long as $310s continue to hold - over $321, we have the potential of revisiting all time highs in the near future.
We also cannot ignore the fact that it could trigger pullback and fill the gap from $305 to $311.
For upside continuation, I am looking for acceptance over $320.97, with targets to $327.32, $333.59, $338.71 and $340.
If it fails to hold $311.7, we could fill the gap down to $305.63 with the potential of revisiting $297.72.

$AAPL: Apple

Apple's weekly chart looks gorgeous here! Weekly double bottom and breaking above 3 weeks worth of price action too.
Breakout from consolidation like that usually leads to explosive moves either way.
It is currently retesting previous resistance, and as long as it can hold above $256, above $262.19 we could see continuation to the upside.
Over $262.19, we have room to $266, $269.34, $272.77, and $274.88.

$CRWV: Coreweave

You don’t get a lot of picture-perfect breakouts, but CRWV was certainly one to remember. We’re up 26.2% already on shares with a nice stop loss at the weekly lows.
We’ve got a key hourly level near $104.15, if we see acceptance over this level we could look to target key levels near $115.9, $121.3, and $124.14 in the near future.
That’s a pretty wide move from spot price, but our closest level of support is also near $93.35, with lower levels down towards $85.07 and $83.41, so if large distances between levels seems scary you could always give this chart more time to consolidate.
We’re looking for long-term continuation with the shares on this.

$TSLA: Tesla

We’ve yet to see a reversal on TSLA, which is starting to become concerning.
We’re seeing a potential weekly failure-to-go-lower setup with this weekly candle, but we need some more bullish signs, like acceptance over $364 to $366.
If we get that trigger, we have levels near $372.2 $377.6, $381.5, and $384 to target.
We have support levels near $346 and $343, if we lose those, we can target $339.8 and $333.2 before our final target near $326.20. There is potential to use one of these closer support levels as an entry for a bounce as well. We could always take $343 all the way to $364 if we see a perfect refusal to go lower on a retest and breakout with strength.

$COST: Costco

This is an interesting setup, we got an absolutely perfect trendline breakout last week that took us right into all of our near key levels. However, we had a brutal selloff on Friday that took us all the way back to trendline resistance turned support.
We’ll be watching to see if we get a bounce off this trendline and acceptance above a key level near $1003.3 for a push back towards $1034.6, and then $1050. We have support levels at $997, $992.5, and $988.44.
Keep in mind, $1003 to $1034 is a large gap, and could easily fail to hit the target.

$LUNR: Intuitive Machines Inc

You hear traders talking about the moon all the time, but this company actually specializes in space exploration, and looks primed to explore some new short-term highs.
We closed just under a key level of $24.04, but we have another near $24.7. We’ll use these as triggers for a breakout. However, we do not have any close levels until $30.5, and after that point, we have zero key levels to target outside of psychological levels like $35 / $40, etc.
We have plenty of support levels near $22.8, $22.9, and $20, but this is definitely a risky setup given that we have so few levels to the upside since they haven’t traded in years.

$ABNB: Airbnb

Not much has changed since we initially purchased this stock, but still waiting for a potential breakout over trendline resistance on ABNB.
Acceptance above $130.94 could give us a push towards $133.5 / $133.8 and then further levels near $134.5 and $135.5. After that, we’ll be testing the trendline again. Breakouts over that are looking for $136, $137.6, and $139.40.
We have support to monitor for a bounce around $127 / $127.34.

$CMG: Chipotle Mexican Grill

We’ve got CMG back on the watchlist as it’s attempting to break out of this bull flag on the daily chart. We’ve got a strong zone of resistance between $34.5 and $34.7, over that zone, and we have another zone between $35 and $35.25, then $35.77, $36.9, and $37.41.
This looks like a nice longer term setup, but we can obviously play the short term spikes!
We have support near $34. If we capitulate below that we could retest lower levels near $32.7 and $31.62.