Weekly Watchlist

OCTOBER 26th - October 30th, 2026

Broad Market Analysis

SP500

CRUDE OIL 2-YEAR TREASURY 10-YEAR TREASURY

TECHNICAL Analysis

DE

MSFT

Major Market Notes

Last Week: The market put a price on AI spending, with Meta falling 9.4% despite an earnings beat. Thursday’s fallout dropped the Nasdaq nearly 3% and semiconductors almost 7%, leaving the Nasdaq down 0.7% for a second straight weekly loss and the S&P 500 off 0.5%, while the Dow gained 0.4% for a third straight weekly win. Tesla rose 5% on a beat with positive free cash flow and merger talks with SpaceX, and IBM surged 9%. Crude ripped to $117, while safe-haven buying pulled the 10-year back to 5%.

Over the Weekend: Trump said he’s weighing a deal with Iran against action to “finish them off,” floating a new round of strikes if no agreement comes, while US intelligence warned Iran is in advanced stages of planning attacks on American targets. Two supertankers carrying over 4.5 million barrels hit mines in Hormuz, the Houthis struck Saudi airports, an Aramco facility, and East-West pipeline stations, and Trump accused Tehran of faking ship attacks to drive oil higher before the midterms.

The Week Ahead: The heaviest week of the quarter. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday after the close, just hours after the FOMC decision at 2 pm, then Amazon, Intel, and Starbucks hit Thursday night with Core PCE, Q3 GDP, and claims that morning. Visa, Coca-Cola, UPS, and PayPal lead Tuesday, Caterpillar and Lilly go Thursday morning, and Exxon and Chevron close it Friday. After Meta got punished for spending, the question is whether Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon raise capex and how the market treats it, with the Fed and hot oil layered on top. Expect the biggest moves of earnings season Wednesday and Thursday nights.

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Upcoming Earnings Releases

Economic Calendar

Broad Market Analysis

/SPX500USD: SP500

The SP500 closed below $7650 to end the week, but essentially closed right on top of it once again, which leads me to believe we are going to have a major week this week in terms of overall market direction.
If $7650 can be broken and held as support, look for a move higher here back up to $7800 or so in the future.
If $7650/$7600 cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move lower down to $7500/$7400 in the future to test major support below.

$S5FI: SP500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average

Short term breadth continued higher last week once again, with a breakout above 45% leading to a major move higher just under 60%.
For this week, if 55% can hold as support, look for a move to 65%/72.50% in the future.
If 55% cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move to 40%. Anything below 40% and expect a move to 35%/30% and potentially lower in the future.

$S5TH: SP500 Stocks Above 200-Day Average

Long term breadth also moved higher last week, with a nice breakout above 52.50% leading to a move to close near 56% to end the week.
As long as 52.50% holds as support in the future, look for a move to 57.50%/60%/65% in the future.
If 52.50% cannot hold as support, look for a move to 50%. Anything below 50% and expect a move to 42.50%/40% and potentially lower in the future.

$US30: Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow failed to move substantially higher last week, but still made a move higher above $52000 to close the week.
With that, as long as $51500 can continue to hold as support this week and $52000 can as well, look for a move higher to $52500/$53000/$53500-$53600 in the future.
If $51500 cannot hold as support, look for a test of $51000. Anything below $51000 and expect a move to $50000 to test major support below.

$IXIC: Nasdaq Composite

The Nasdaq closed below $26350 last week and pushed lower, which could be the beginning of a larger move as long as the bears continue to push lower here.
For this week, if $26350 remains as resistance, look for a move lower down to $25000/$24500 in the future.
If $26350 can be broken and held as support, look for a retest of $27000/$27750 in the future.

$US2000: Russell 2000

The Russell had the most promising week of all the indexes, with the retest of $2730 leading to a nice bounce to close the week right under $2800.
If $2730 can continue to hold as support in the future, look for a move higher to $2850/$2900 in the future to test major resistance above.
If $2730 cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move to $2600/$2500-$2475 in the future to test the previous all time high.

$VIX: Volatility Index

The VIX managed to hold above $18 support last week, but it still remains below $20 resistance.
With that, if $20 can be broken and held as support, look for a move to $23.50. Anything over $23.50 and expect a move to $25/$27.50/$30 in the future.
If $20 cannot be broken and it remains as resistance, look for a retest of $18 support. Anything below $18 and expect a move to $16/$14 in the future.

$XAUUSD: Spot Gold

Gold closed right at $4000 major support last week after it broke lower on continued failures to hold $4200 support.
For this week, if $4000 can hold as support, look for a retest of $4200. Anything above $4200 and expect a move to $4400-$4500 in the future.
If $4000 cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move to $3750/$3500 and potentially lower in the future as there is little to no support below.

$XAGUSD: Spot Silver

Silver also continued lower last week, with it closing right at $54 to end the week which is an incredibly pivotal area of support.
With that, if $54-$55 can hold as support, look for a move to $60/$65 in the future.
If $54 cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move to $50/$48/$45-$44 in the future.

$DXY: US Dollar Index

The US Dollar essentially closed at the same level as last week, with it sitting right below $102 support essentially to begin the week here.
For this week, if $102 can be broken and held as support, look for a move to $103/$104/$106 in the future.
If $102 cannot be broken and remains as resistance, look for a move to $101/$100 in the future.

$USOIL: Crude Oil

Crude Oil broke out last week above $100 resistance, with the trend starting to look really strong here again for Crude Oil.
With that, if $100 can hold as support, look for a move to $105/$110/$115 in the future.
If $100 cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move to $95-$92.50 in the future to test major support below.

$US02Y: US Government Bonds - 2-Year Yield

The 2-Year broke below 4.75% support last week, which could present some potential downside in the future.
If 4.75% continues to hold as resistance, look for a move to 4.50%-4.60% in the future. Anything below 4.50% and expect a move to 4.30%-4.15% in the future.
If 4.75% can be broken and held as support, look for a move to 4.85%/5% in the future.

$US10Y: US Government Bonds - 10-Year Yield

The 10-Year closed right at 5% support last week, which is no surprise considering the 10-Year is just going level to level as of the last couple of weeks.
For this week, if 5% can hold as support, look for a retest of 5.30% in the future. Anything above 5.30% and expect a move to 5.50%/5.75% and potentially higher in the future.
If 5% cannot hold as support, look for a move to 4.60%/4.50% in the future.

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Technical Analysis

$DE: Deere & Company

$DE with an interesting long-term trend line holds with tons of other confluences. It has a daily double bottom, failing to go lower after attempting to get continuation of its daily downtrend. After testing the trend line, it seems like thus far it is attempting to hold and flip its daily trend.
The weekly chart also has the potential to trigger weekly buys if it manages to accept over $659. IMO, perfect spot to pivot and set a higher low.
For longs, ideally looking for holds of $626.18, acceptance over $646. Over $646 it has room to $658.66, $678, $690.47 with room to $706’s.

$MSFT: Microsoft

We’ve mentioned this name tons of times the last few weeks but we are picking it back up. After those recent swing highs, it has attempted to drift lower and pullback. It is currently testing a zone that Microsoft struggled to break past which resistance could flip into support in this scenario.
Our long plan is pretty simple, looking for acceptance over $526.39 with clear targets to $534.78, $541.37, and $548.87. Over $549’s, we have all time highs at $555.45, which we are forced to use psych levels to $560 and $545.
If $MSFT fails to hold $514.93, it could see a move lower into $506.05, $500, and $488.62.

$META: Meta

Well, Meta got absolutely punished for its spending. This retest looks really good if we catch a bid here and defend the breakout, but it’s never fun going from +30% to +5%.
There’s some support around $630, but if we trade below $626.4, we could retest lower towards levels near $618 / $615 / $610. We have more levels below $600 near $592.
If we catch a bid, we’re looking for acceptance above $656.4 for level retests near $680, $689, and $695.3. After that, maybe we can start to reclaim ground towards $750.
Either way, we're going to have to keep our eyes on this. We got in just before it started to look attractive again, but the market might be punishing AI spending for a while now.

$AMD: Advanced Micro Devices

Another huge run that had a huge pullback…
There are multiple support levels between $500 and $505 to watch for a bounce if we open lower. We’re just between some levels at $520 and $515. If we see acceptance over $520, we could retest higher levels near $525.8 / $527.14 / $530.50.
There’s a decent-looking wedge on the 1h / 4h, but not if the broad market continues to sell off and weakness spreads across the board.

$AFRM: Affirm Holdings

If you’re noticing a trend, yet another one of our nice winners caught a nasty pullback. It hasn't been a very fun couple of weeks over here. I will be quick to cut AFRM, like I was with CRWV. There’s far too much uncertainty, and it’s already trending lower.
If we capitulate below $70, we have levels near $67.44 and $66.73. I’ll be out below that.
The weekly buying pressure paired with the cup and handle was incredibly attractive. Trading below all of that buying pressure, not so much. We’ll see how it does this week.
If we can get back over $72.88, then there’s room up into $75.13 / $76. There’s a lot of different levels into $81, but over $81 is clear skies towards $86.

$AMZN: Amazon

This does a good job of summing up last week. We were going to skip Amazon because it was trading near the range low. We’d only revisit Amazon if it reclaimed those lows and set a daily buy setup. It did exactly that, then it absolutely died after an indecision hammer on the daily chart. Now we’re looking at an even lower low.
Just saying, this action has been frustrating, and we should be on the lookout for further volatility/indecision on this name. Higher highs and lower lows are not a clear trend.
If it can reclaim $252.6, maybe it gets a $260.25 / $264 retest. However, it looks like we’ll head towards lower levels near $244.7, $243, $239.5 once we capitulate below $246.