
Quantum computing has been the stuff of science fiction for decades, but today it’s rapidly becoming a technological reality, and IonQ stands at the forefront of this revolution. As one of the purest plays in the quantum computing industry, IonQ offers investors a rare opportunity to gain exposure to a market with trillion-dollar potential. However, with great potential comes great risk, as the company operates in a space where timelines are long, fundamentals are still catching up, and competition from big players looms large. There will be high volatility ahead.
What Is Quantum Computing?
Traditional computing relies on bits—units of information that exist in a binary state of 0 or 1. Quantum computing, however, uses qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously. This ability to process vast amounts of data in parallel positions quantum computing as a transformative force for industries like artificial intelligence, cryptography, healthcare, and logistics. Quantum computing is a thousand times more efficient than what AI is for data centers.

IonQ’s Value Proposition
IonQ is the leading pure-play quantum computing company on the market. Unlike competitors like Rigetti ($RGTI), which struggle to scale, or Quantum Computing Inc. ($QUBT), whose fundamentals are questioned by analysts, IonQ has established itself as the tier-one player in the space.
Here’s what makes IonQ stand out:
Technological Leadership
IonQ’s quantum computing technology is built on trapped ion qubits, which offer superior stability and accuracy compared to other architectures. This approach gives IonQ a competitive edge in the race to scale quantum computing for practical use.

First-Mover Advantage
As one of the earliest publicly traded quantum computing companies, IonQ has a head start in building partnerships, refining its technology, and establishing itself as a leader in the field.

Strategic Positioning
IonQ is well-aligned with macro trends. The U.S. government is heavily investing in quantum computing to maintain technological supremacy over rivals like China, and a pro-business administration like Trump’s further bolsters IonQ’s potential. StocksavvyShay notes that quantum computing is now a “Trump trade,” benefiting from policies designed to accelerate technological advancements.

Key Strengths
Massive Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for quantum computing is estimated in the trillions, according to Shay. Smaller data centers and industries requiring ultra-high computational power will increasingly turn to quantum solutions as traditional computing reaches its limits.

Best-in-Class Leadership
IonQ’s management, led by CEO Peter Chapman, has been praised for its strategic vision and technical expertise. The company’s focus on scaling technology while securing key partnerships positions it for long-term success.

Strong Thematic Tailwinds
Quantum computing is the next major thematic following AI. Shay and Quench compare IonQ’s potential to early-stage Nvidia ($NVDA) and Palantir ($PLTR). These are companies that dominated their respective spaces as they matured.

Challenges and Risks
Overvaluation
IonQ’s current valuation reflects sky-high expectations, but the company isn’t expected to turn a profit until 2028. Fighting FOMO is crucial for investors as the stock may see significant pullbacks in the short term.
Competition
Big tech giants like Google, IBM, and Microsoft are heavily invested in quantum computing. While IonQ has first-mover advantage, these companies’ resources and scale could pose a significant threat.
Market Volatility
As a small-cap stock in an emerging industry, IonQ is highly susceptible to market swings. Short-term investors should be prepared for significant volatility. Furthermore, the journey of an early investor in secular growth companies should expect high volatility.
The Setup
From Shay and Quench’s perspective, IonQ represents a long-term, small allocation investment rather than a short-term trade. Unlike AI, which is already in the third inning, quantum is just getting warmed up.
- Entry Points: $5, $7.20, $10.80
- Secondary Entry: Confirmation of support at $18-$20, Weekly 50 SMA
- Target Levels: $56 (short-term), with exponential upside as the quantum market develops.
- Position Size: Mini-monster small position size with enormous potential.

Recent Performance and Price Action
IonQ has had an explosive year, with its stock climbing over 500% as investors flood into the quantum computing thematic. The catalyst? Google’s Willow quantum computer solving problems that would take traditional supercomputers 10 septillion years to complete. This breakthrough shifted quantum computing from speculative to actionable, driving immense interest in companies like IonQ.
However, the rapid price appreciation has outpaced fundamentals, leading to concerns of overextension. Shay and Quench emphasized caution at the beginning of December 2024 and consistently warned of a 30-50% pullback to the weekly 50SMA as the ideal (secondary) entry point.
Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, at the beginning of January 2025 mentioned briefly that the general application of quantum was 15-30 years away, whereas Google's Willow suggested the reality was just 3-5 years. Shay is adamant that investors are misquoting his statements where, commercially, with AWS and Azure, it is already a reality. For the average consumer it might be a few decades away, but the engine is already rumbling.
Unfortunately, investors were spooked and within one day, the stock tumbled 52%. However, fortune favors the prepared. This was expected. We have our plan.

The Verdict: A New Frontier in Computing
IonQ isn’t just a stock; it’s a story about the next frontier in technology. Quantum computing has the power to revolutionize industries, and IonQ is at the heart of this transformation. While the road ahead is fraught with risks, the potential rewards are equally immense.
As Shay succinctly puts it, “Quantum computing is the next thematic after AI. Nobody knows when the iPhone moment will occur, but IonQ is positioned to lead when it does.”
For those with the patience to hold through volatility, IonQ offers a rare chance to invest in a company shaping the future of computing. Stay disciplined, plan your trade, and let the thematic work in your favor.