Weekly Watchlist

OCTOBER 5th - October 9th, 2026

Broad Market Analysis

SP500

CRUDE OIL 2-YEAR TREASURY 10-YEAR TREASURY

TECHNICAL Analysis

Major Market Notes

Last Week: Bad news was good news Friday, with September payrolls at just 29K versus 90K expected and 60K in downward revisions to prior months, collapsing October hike odds from 64% to around 16%. Stocks ripped on the print, with the Nasdaq jumping 1.2% Friday to lead a rally that salvaged a choppy week, leaving it slightly higher while the S&P 500 and Dow finished with weekly losses. Nvidia hit a fresh all-time high, Tesla climbed on strong Q3 deliveries, and the G7 released emergency diesel reserves that helped push oil lower for the week. The VIX settled back near 15.4.

Over the Weekend: The war drums got louder. Trump's national security team met at Camp David, a third carrier strike group is steaming to the region, and Trump said renewed strikes are possible after the midterms while predicting the war ends "very soon" with oil tumbling. Tehran reiterated Sunday that Hormuz stays shut until its seven conditions are met; a source says Iran is gearing up for a major round of fighting, and at least four tankers were struck in the strait since 10/1, including two over the weekend. Watch crude at the open with escalation and deal headlines pulling in opposite directions.

The Week Ahead: Q3 earnings season arrives. Delta kicks it off Friday morning as the traditional opener, with PepsiCo Thursday, Levi's and Applied Digital Wednesday night, and Constellation Brands Tuesday after the close, before big banks take over next week. The data calendar is light, with ISM Services Monday, FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon as the first look inside the hike decision, and jobless claims Thursday, while 10-year and 30-year auctions test bond demand midweek. With hike odds crushed, records back in reach, and the Iran standoff at a boil, earnings guidance and oil headlines should help set the tone this week.

Events & Livestream Schedule

Upcoming Earnings Releases

Economic Calendar

Broad Market Analysis

/SPX500USD: SP500

The SP500 essentially closed right where it closed last week, with it opening above key support of $7650 and looking to move higher in the future.
As long as $7650 can hold as support, look for a move higher to $7800 to test the high of trend. Anything above $7800 and expect a continued move higher to $8000/$8250/$8500/etc.
If $7650/$7600 cannot hold as support this week, look for a move lower down to $7500/$7400 in the future to test major support below.

$S5FI: SP500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average

Short term breadth continued lower last week, but it managed to bounce off of 20% support, which is key for the market going forward.
If 20% can hold as support, look for a move to 30%/35%/40% in the future.
If 20% cannot hold as support, look for a move down to 15%/7.50% and potentially lower in the future.

$S5TH: SP500 Stocks Above 200-Day Average

Long term breadth also continued lower last week, but it had a nice bounce off 40% to end the week.
For this week, if 40% can hold as support, look for a move to 50% in the future. Technically 42.50% is the key level to watch, but 40% is a key level of support that needs to be watched.
If 40% cannot hold as support, look for a move to 35%/30% in the future to test major support below.

$US30: Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow broke below $51500 last week after it held that level for the past couple of weeks, which will be the key level to watch going forward.
If $51500 continues to hold as resistance, look for a larger move lower down to $50000 in the future to test the previous all time high and major support.
If $51500 can be broken and held as support, look for a move to $52000/$52500/$53000 and potentially higher in the future.

$IXIC: Nasdaq Composite

The Nasdaq continued higher again last week, technically making a new all time high as it continues to hold $27000 as support.
For this week, if $27000 can continue to hold as support, look for a move to $27500/$28000 and potentially higher in the future.
If $27000 cannot hold as support, look for a move to $26350. Anything under $26350 and expect a larger move down to $26000/$25500/$25000 and potentially lower in the future.

$US2000: Russell 2000

The Russell continues to remain below $2900 resistance, but at least the bulls managed to push higher to close the week.
If $2900 continues to hold as resistance, look for a move to $2800/$2750-$2730 in the future.
If $2900 can be broken and held as support, look for a move higher to $2950/$3000. Anything above $3000 would open the door to much higher targets as well.

$VIX: Volatility Index

The VIX is still sitting in the range between $14 and $18 right now, with another failed move higher with the VIX remaining above $14.
If $14 can continue to hold as support, look for a move higher to test $16/$18 in the future.
Any move above $18 would open the door to $20/$23.50 in the future as well.
If $14 cannot hold as support, look for a move to $12/$10 in the future.

$XAUUSD: Spot Gold

Gold continued lower last week after $4400 and $4200 have been confirmed as resistance, which should lead to a move to $4000 in the future.
If $4200 remains as resistance this week, look for a move to $4000. Anything below $4000 and expect a move to $3750/$3500 and potentially lower in the future.
If $4200 can be broken and held as support, look for a move to $4200. Anything over $4200 and expect a move to $4400-$4500 in the future.

$XAGUSD: Spot Silver

Silver broke down last week after it failed to hold $65 as support and had a beautiful breakdown to confirm the bearish move.
If $65 continues to hold as resistance, look for a move to $60. Anything below $60 and expect a move to $55/$54 in the future.
If $65 can be broken and held as support in the future, look for a move to $70/$75/$80/$85.

$DXY: US Dollar Index

The US Dollar continued higher last week, with a new high of trend after breaking over $101 resistance and closing near $102.
If $101 can hold as support, look for a move to $102/$103 in the future. Anything over $103 and expect a move to $104/$106 in the future.
If $101 cannot hold as support, look for a move to $100. Anything below $100 and expect a move to $98/$96 in the future.

$USOIL: Crude Oil

Crude Oil broke below $92.50 to end the week last week, but it did manage to hold up considering it was almost at $87.50 last week.
For this week, if $92.50-$95 can be broken and held as support, look for a retest of $100. Anything over $100 and expect a move to $105/$110/$115 in the future.
If $92.50 acts as resistance, look for a move to $90/$87.50/$85 in the future.

$US02Y: US Government Bonds - 2-Year Yield

The 2-Year managed to hold 4.75% as support last week, which shows the strength of the
bullish move here.
For this week, if 4.75% can continue to hold as support, look for a move to
5%/5.10%/5.20% in the future.
If 4.75% cannot hold as support this week, look for a move to 4.50%-4.60% in the future.
Anything below 4.50% and expect a move to the range between 4.15%-4.30% in the
future.

$US10Y: US Government Bonds - 10-Year Yield

The 10-Year continued higher last week, with a nice touch of 5.30% last week to confirm
its validity as resistance.
With that, as long as 5% holds as support this week, look for a move up to 5.30%.
Anything over 5.30% and expect a move to 5.50% and potentially higher in the future.
If 5% cannot hold as support this week, look for a move to 4.80%/4.60%-4.50% in the
future.

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Technical Analysis

$META: Meta

First red bar in five weeks, and it’s a beautiful inside bar well above the breakout.
Acceptance over $750.50 could trigger a weekly three-bar play on $META. We have a singular level to use as a target near $770 and a daily high near $780. After that, we’re looking for that psychological number of $800 and seeing how we do over ATH.
That said, this pullback could continue down. If we capitulate below $725, then we could retest a key level of support near $718.80. If that level doesn’t hold, we could slip back to $680 / $670 or even $650 near the apex of this initial breakout.

$CRWV: CoreWeave

We’re still watching this weekly bull flag setup on $CRWV with a small shares position.
$META and $AMD both saw incredibly violent breakouts from similar structures recently, and both are at or near ATH after about a month. This one has a little more meat on the bones and should take longer, but that’s why we’re optimistic about the setup!
Once we finally see acceptance over $91.5, then we could retest key levels near $95.3 and $103.20. The trendline breakout would be right around this zone as well.
Further acceptance could push us towards levels near $108 / $110 / $120 in the future!
All of that being said, ATH would be a beautiful target after a long-term hold if this name does see a violent breakout.

$AMZN: Amazon

This setup has had a little more time to develop and looks like it could be ready for a reversal. Fair warning here, we got baited on this setup once before already.
Now that that’s out of the way, we’re looking for acceptance above $252.25 for potential level retests near $254.25 and $255.85. Further continuation above those levels could send us towards $256.74, $257.65, and $259.
This would put us right around the previous weekly highs where we could come into some resistance. If not, we could be looking at a HTF reversal back up towards PATH. If we continue down, specifically below $250.5 and $249.3, then we could retest $246 / $244.6 / $243 / $239.4.

$AFRM: Affirm

The main watch is this weekly cup and handle pattern, with a nice trendline forming on the right, and some buying pressure on these weekly candle wicks.
If we capitulate below $70, then we could retest lower levels near $67.44 and $66.73. There is some risk on the table with this downtrend we’ve been in. That said, if we see acceptance over $72.65, then we have room towards $74 / $75 / $76. Then we’ve got some real room towards $81.2 and $86.2.
This is another long-term hold, and we may be early here, but the setup looks nice!

$AAPL: Apple

I’m intrigued by Apple’s daily chart here! We have trend line hold that has clearly saved Apple from breaking down and making a move lower several times! The weekly chart attempted to break under previous week lows but buyers stepped in and bought it back up. Daily is attempting to set a higher low as long as Apple does not retest $325 and fails to hold.
Looking for acceptance over $334.31 with clear targets to $338.23, $343.47. Over $343.47, we are out of levels and could be setting new all time highs which forces us to use psych levels to $350 and $355.
Now, if Apple fails to hold $325, it pretty much fails to hold the trend line and could see a move lower into $320 and $315.

$MSFT: Microsoft

We sent out Microsoft last week, and unfortunately it didn’t provide us much. It still has tons of potential, so we will keep our eyes on it this week too. It managed to close out of this range. Ideally, I would like to see a gap over red and send it higher. The weekly got a 3 bar play primed for a move higher too.
The plan remains the same as last week, looking for acceptance over $520 with targets to $529, $537.62, $544.93 with tons of room to $552.90.
Wouldn’t love this but if Microsoft rejects the top of this small range that is in, below $512, it could revisit $505, $491.69, and $479.20.