Last Week: The bond market took over, handing stocks their first weekly loss since late July. The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level in nearly two decades as the national debt topped $40 trillion, and Bessent's move to double long-dated buybacks brought only temporary relief. Walmart fell over 10% on a rare earnings miss while Ross rallied on a beat. Crude jumped 7% to $87 on Trump's "economic warfare" threats against Iran, gold gained 5% to three-month highs, and Bitcoin ripped to $77K for its best week in 2 years.

Over the Weekend: Economic war replaces the shooting war. Bessent details the "economic D-Day" sanctions package Monday, targeting any country giving Iran a lifeline, with China squarely in focus. Iran's security chief warned Saturday of "seismic" retaliation against any neighbor that joins, threatening that "not a drop of oil" would leave the Gulf. Notably, Bessent said large-scale strikes are unlikely to restart under maximum economic pressure, and Hormuz traffic actually rose 27% last week. Monday's announcement is the first catalyst of the week for crude and risk sentiment.

The Week Ahead: Nvidia week. The most important report of the quarter lands Wednesday after the close alongside Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Synopsys, and Okta, with the whole AI trade riding on the guide. Wednesday morning also brings Core PCE (3.3% YoY forecast), the Q2 GDP second estimate, and durable goods, with consumer confidence and new home sales Tuesday plus Intuit and Zoom that night. Thursday features Best Buy, Dollar General, and Marvell as the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium kicks off, capped by Chair Warsh's speech Friday. With yields at multi-decade highs, sanctions landing Monday, Nvidia midweek, and Warsh Friday, every session has a catalyst.

Events & Livestream Schedule

Upcoming Earnings Releases

Economic Calendar

Broad Market Analysis

/SPX500USD: SP500

The SP500 pulled back last week and retested $7650, which as of writing this is still holding as support.
If $7650 can hold as support, look for a move higher to $7800 to test the high of trend. Anything above $7800 and expect a continued move higher to $8000/$8250/$8500/etc.
If $7650 cannot hold as support this week, look for a move lower down to $7500/$7400 in the future to test major support below.

$S5FI: SP500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average

Short term breadth got officially rejected off of 65%-75% resistance last week, with a move down to 57.50% to end the week.
For this week, if 65% remains as resistance, look for a move lower down to 55%. Anything below 55% and expect a move to 45%/40% and potentially lower in the future.
If 65% can be broken and held as support, look for a move higher to 72.50%-75% in the future.

$S5TH: SP500 Stocks Above 200-Day Average

Long term breadth got rejected off of 75% resistance last week, with a move down below 70% to end the week.
If 75% holds as resistance, look for a move down to 65% major support in the future. If 65% cannot hold as support, look for a move down to 60% in the future.
If 65% can hold as support in the future, look for a move higher to 70%/75% in the future.
65%-75% is a major range for long term breadth, so if it can continue to hold the range, expect a healthy market in the future.

$US30: Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow failed to hold $53500-$53600 last week as support, with a breakdown down to $53250 or so to end the week.
If $53500-$53600 holds as resistance in the future, look for a move to $52000/$51500. Anything below $51500 and expect a move to $50000 in the future.
If $53500-$53600 can hold as support, look for a move higher to $54000. Anything below $54000 and expect a move to $55000/$56000/etc.

$IXIC: Nasdaq Composite

The Nasdaq failed to hold $26350 last week, with a close slightly below it to end the week.
If $26350 holds as resistance, look for a move lower down to $25000/$24500 in the future to test the low of trend. Anything below $24500 and expect a move to $24000/$23750 in the future.
If $26350 can be broken and held as support, look for a move higher to $26500/$27000 in the future. Anything above $27000 and expect a move to $27500/$28000/$28500/etc.

$US2000: Russell 2000

The Russell put in a bearish engulfing candle last week, but it's still managing to hold above $3000 to begin the week.
If $3000 can hold as support this week, look for a move higher to $3050/$3075. If $3075 can be broken and held as support, look for a move higher to $3100/$3150/$3200 in the future.
If $3000 cannot hold as support, look for a move to $2900. Anything below $2900 and expect a move to $2800/$2750-$2730 in the future.

$VIX: Volatility Index

The VIX managed to hold $14 support last week, with a nice move to $15 to end the week.
If $14 can continue to hold as support, look for a move to $16/$18 in the future. Anything over $18 and expect a move to $20/$23.50 in the future.
If $14 cannot hold as support, look for a move to $12/$10 in the future.

$XAUUSD: Spot Gold

Gold managed to break over $4400 resistance last week, with a beautiful close above $4500 to end the week at $4600.
For this week, if $4400 can continue to hold as support and $4500 can continue to hold as support, look for a move higher to $4750/$5000 in the future.
If $4500 cannot hold as support, look for a move to $4400. Anything below $4400 and expect a move to $4200/$4000 in the future.

$XAGUSD: Spot Silver

Silver managed to break over $65 major resistance last week, which is a major breakout for Silver going forward.
If $65 can hold as support in the future, look for a move to $70/$75/$80/$85 in the future.
If $65 cannot hold as support, look for a move to $60/$55/$54 in the future.

$DXY: US Dollar Index

The US Dollar continued lower last week, with it continuing to fail to break over $100 leading to a major breakdown.
For this week, if $98 can hold as support, look for a move to $100 in the future. Anything over $100 and expect a move to $101/$102/$103 in the future.
If $98 cannot hold as support, look for a move to $96 in the future.

$USOIL: Crude Oil

Crude Oil moved higher again last week, with a close right above $85 to end the week which is looking pretty bullish.
If $85 can hold as support, look for a move to $90/$92.50/$95 in the future.
If $85 cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move to $82.50/$80/$75 in the future.

$US02Y: US Government Bonds - 2-Year Yield

The 2-Year managed to move higher after holding 4.15% as support last week, which is a bullish sign for bonds going forward.
If 4.15% can continue to hold as support, look for a move to 4.30%. Anything above 4.30% and expect a move to 4.50%/4.60% in the future.
If 4.15% cannot hold as support, look for a move to 4%/3.80% in the future.

$US10Y: US Government Bonds - 10-Year Yield

The 10-Year continued higher last week, with its highest weekly candle of trend here in the micro, which is quite beautiful.
If 4.60% can continue to hold as support, look for a move to 4.80%/5%/5.30% in the future.
If 4.60% cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move to 4.50%. Anything below 4.50% and expect a move to 4.20%-4.30% in the future.

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Technical Analysis

$GOOGL: Google

Clear as day, Google has been stuck in this range for close to 3 months now, and a few weeks ago it attempted to break out, but unfortunately, it sold off back into this daily support that could try and hold. If and when $340’s fail to hold, we could also look for a move lower into $316’s.
Mainly looking for holds of $339.42, and as long as Google accepts over $346.80, we’ve got long targets to $355.62, $362.66, $376.24, and $384.47.
If daily support fails, under $339.42, Google could move lower into $331.39, $321.77 and $316.67.

$SHOP: Shopify

One of my least favorite names to trade but without a doubt, it’s a chart that is hard to ignore. 2 weeks ago, Shopify reported earnings and investors seem to like the data. Since then, it managed to gap over months worth of price action with the potential of continuation to the upside.
$SHOP has been knocking and testing $149.51 several times, so I am expecting it to clear this level and push higher into $152.28, $154.97, $158, and $162.34.
Harsh failures of $149.51, and acceptance under $145.16, we could see lower into $142.55, $138.90, and $135.22.

$GS: Goldman Sachs

$GS with a similar chart setup as $GOOGL - it came back into daily support, and after testing it, it had a nice reaction off of it. Our trading plan with $GS is simple and straight to the point.
Mainly looking for acceptance over $1043 with targets to $1055, $1074, $1101, and $1123.6.
Failures to hold $1013, we could see a drift down into $972.6, and $927.80.

$AMD: Advanced Micro Devices

This bullish pennant is getting interesting here! Unfortunately, last week it rejected the top end of the flag/trend line, dragging it lower and is now testing this daily support and bottom trend line also.
As long as it manages to hold this daily support at $460, I like longs over $476.5 with targets to $487.56, $500.90, $515.79, and $527.14.
If $AMD loses daily support, breaks of $462.11, it could see a move lower into $441.20, $429.50 with lots of room to $396.

$MU: Micron

After $MU broke out of this trend line, it has been bull flagging and fully expecting it to break out of this flag.
The weekly closed red last week, but closed inside of the previous weekly trend bar giving it the potential of a 1-2-3 pattern as long as it breaks above last week highs and not close under last week lows.
Over $989.68, it has room to $1031, $1082, $1140, and $1185.

$DIS: Disney

Disney reminds me of the "c'mon, do something” meme, and I think it finally wants to do it! We have the weekly chart on watch, it’s been in a downtrend for a long period of time, but after the double bottom, and now closing above the trend line, it sure looks like it wants to attempt to flip structure if it can clear these recent swing highs.
Acceptance over $108, it has room up to $109.14, $110.30, $111.77. Don’t think we are asking for much but over $111.77 it could clear it and tag $113.67, and $115.88!