Weekly Watchlist

September 14th - September 18th, 2026

Broad Market Analysis

SP500

CRUDE OIL 2-YEAR TREASURY 10-YEAR TREASURY

TECHNICAL Analysis

AMD

AMZN

Major Market Notes

Last Week: VIX surged 25% to its highest since early August. WTI topped $102, and Brent hit $107 Thursday, the highest since May, after the Houthis launched a campaign for the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and Friday's CPI ran hot with core at 0.3% versus 0.2% expected, sending September hike odds to 86%. Oracle was the bright spot, jumping on a 62% cloud growth quarter with over $30 billion in new AI contracts, while Adobe fell on weak guidance and Kroger gained 4% on a beat.

Over the Weekend: An Iranian commercial vessel was struck in Hormuz late Saturday, killing one, as Iran and Gulf states prepare to sign an Iran-Oman shipping route agreement Monday in Muscat. A senior Iranian official said no negotiations with the U.S. are underway, though Trump insists Tehran wants a deal, and the Houthis kept advancing toward Bab el-Mandeb with Saudi exchanges continuing.

The Week Ahead: Fed week. Wednesday's rate decision at 2 pm is the main event, with hike odds near 86% after hot CPI and PPI, and it comes with fresh economic projections and a press conference, so the dots and Warsh's tone matter as much as the move itself. August Retail Sales (0.8% forecast) hits Wednesday morning, with Philly Fed and jobless claims Thursday. Earnings are nearly silent, with Lennar Wednesday after close as a housing read and Trip.com Tuesday night, plus Friday's quad witching expiration adding volume. A hike into $100 oil and a wobbling AI trade is the test, so let Wednesday set the tone before pressing either direction.

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Economic Calendar

Broad Market Analysis

/SPX500USD: SP500

The SP500 attempted to push lower last week, but once again was able to hold the key level of $7600-$7650 going into the beginning of the week here.
If $7650 can hold as support, look for a move higher to $7800 to test the high of trend. Anything above $7800 and expect a continued move higher to $8000/$8250/$8500/etc.
If $7650/$7600 cannot hold as support this week, look for a move lower down to $7500/$7400 in the future to test major support below.

$S5FI: SP500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average

Short term breadth continued lower last week, with a breakdown below 40% putting the bears in full control here.
For this week, if 40% remains as resistance, look for a move to 35%/30%/25%/20% in the future.
If 40% can be broken and held as support, look for a move higher to 45%/55% in the future to test major resistance above.

$S5TH: SP500 Stocks Above 200-Day Average

Long term breadth also broke down last week, with a clear breakdown below 60% leading to a nasty week for the market.
With that, if 60% remains as resistance, look for a move lower down to 52.50%/50% in the future. Anything below 50% and expect a retest of 42.50%-40% which is the previous low of trend.
If 60% can be broken and held as support, look for a retest of 65%. Anything above 65% and that would be incredibly bullish, leading to targets of 70%/75% in the future.

$US30: Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow broke down last week after it kept failing to break above $53500-$53600 resistance.
With that, if $52000 cannot be held as support this week, look for a move lower down to $51500. Anything below $51500 and expect a move to $50000 in the future to test that key level of support.
If $52000 can hold as support, look for a retest of $53500-$53600. If $53500-$53600 can be broken and held as support, look for a move higher to $54000/$54500/$55000/etc.

$IXIC: Nasdaq Composite

The Nasdaq is just bouncing around $26350, with it literally closing 17 points below it last week which shows how important this level really is.
If $26350 can hold as support this week, look for a move to ~$26500/$27000 in the future. Anything over $27000 and expect a move to $27500/$28000/$28500/etc.
If $26350 cannot be held and it turns to resistance, look for a move lower down to $26000/$25500/$25000/$24500 in the future.

$US2000: Russell 2000

The Russell is managing to hold onto $2900 support, which will be the key level to watch going forward.
If $2900 can hold as support this week, look for a move to $3000. If $3000 can be broken and held as support, look for a move higher to $3050/$3100/$3150/$3200 in the future.
If $2900 cannot hold as support this week, look for a move to $2850/$2800/$2750-$2730 in the future.

$VIX: Volatility Index

The VIX attempted to breakout last week, with a test of $18 leading to a failure to go higher here going into this week.
If $16 can be broken and held as support, look for a move to $18. Anything over $18 and expect a move to $20/$23.50 in the future.
If $16 remains as resistance, look for a retest of key support at $14 as per usual.

$XAUUSD: Spot Gold

Gold failed to hold $4400 as support last week, which will be the pivotal level to watch over the next few weeks.
If $4400 can be broken and held as support, look for a move to $4500. Anything over $4500 and expect a move to $4750/$5000 in the future.
If $4400 remains as resistance, look for a move to $4200/$4000 in the future to test the low of trend.

$XAGUSD: Spot Silver

Silver is in the exact same spot it was last week, with another attempt by the bulls to push higher failing and the market closing it at major support of $65 to end the week.
If $65 can hold as support in the future, look for a move to $70/$75/$80/$85 in the future.
If $65 cannot hold as support, look for a move to $60/$55/$54 in the future.

$DXY: US Dollar Index

The US Dollar is in the same spot as well this week, with it still sitting right below $100 resistance to begin the week here.
With that, if $100 remains as resistance in the future, look for another retest of $98 in the future. Anything below $98 and expect a move to $96 as well.
If $100 can be broken and held as support, look for a move to $101/$102/$103 in the future.

$USOIL: Crude Oil

Crude Oil continues its insane push higher here, with a breakout of $95 leading to a test of $100 to end the week.
For this week, if $100 can be broken and held as support, look for a move to $105/$110/$115 and potentially higher in the future.
If $100 cannot be broken and remains as resistance, look for a retest of $92.50-$95. Anything below $92.50 and expect a move to $90/$87.50/$85 in the future.

$US02Y: US Government Bonds - 2-Year Yield

The 2-Year had an insane week last week, with a 5.85% move leading to one of the most insane moves I have ever seen.
With that, as long as 4.50%-4.60% can continue to hold as support, look for a move higher to 4.75%/5% and potentially higher in the future.
If 4.50% cannot hold as support, look for a move to 4.30%-4.15% to test that major range of support once again.
Expect bonds to have an insanely volatile week this week with the FOMC Meeting this Wednesday clearly showing a divide between the market and the current FED.

$US10Y: US Government Bonds - 10-Year Yield

This chart honestly needs to be put in a textbook for a perfect example of an inverse head and shoulders, it’s just beautiful.
To say the least, the 10-Year is absolutely pushing here, with a close at 5% to end the week.
For this week, as long as 4.50%-4.60% continue to hold as support, look for the 10-Year to push higher up to 5.30% and potentially higher in the future.
If 4.50% cannot hold as support in the future, that would be bearish and we would expect a move to 4.20%-4.30% in the future.
Expect rates to continue moving higher, this structure is 3-years in the making and it just broke out essentially…

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Technical Analysis

$AMD: Advanced Micro Devices

We sent out $AMD last week, and what a great start thus far! It has broken out of its pennant pattern and if we pay attention to structure, we could see continuation higher!
The weekly managed to hold its weekly range lows, last week it gapped up, sending it higher. $518-520 is an area with tons of resistance, so we’ll keep a close eye on this zone but clearance of it, it has room to $545 and ATH’s at $584’s.
If $AMD can hold above $500, and accept over $520, it has room to $527.15, $538.50, $552.18, with room to $567.29.
Harsh rejections of $520’s, we could see a move lower into $505 with room to $590 and $580.

$AMZN: Amazon

Oh Amazon, how many times have you not faked me out of my longs, but this weekly chart is hard to ignore! We’ve got trend line support, the daily has a downtrend channel that has been stuck in for several weeks but this time attempting to break out of it.
The plan is very simple and straight to the point, as long as $AMZN can break above $257.30 which are Friday highs, it has targets to $261.53, $267, $269 with room to $273’s.
If $AMZN gaps down and erases Friday’s candle, under $253 we could see a move lower into $249.62, $248.62 with room into $243’s.

$META: Meta

We’ve been watching this one for a while, and we’re finally seeing some strong price action again. We’re looking for acceptance over $663 for major continuation out of this weekly bull flag. A rejection here, or a bunch of chop, is certainly on the table until we see a confirmed breakout on these higher time frames that we’ve been watching.
Once we see acceptance over $663, we have levels near $677.5, $683.4, and $697.25 before continuing further into $712.7, $715, $720.5, and $728.11. If we capitulate near $643, then we could retest lower levels near $630, $618, $610. Overall, this setup looks like a long-term bullish trend is setting up at the moment.

$ANET: Arista Networks, Inc.

Certainly haven't traded this one much, but it does look like there could be an opportunity for bullish continuation if we see acceptance out of this bull flag on the daily.
We have resistance near $202 and $200. If we see acceptance of these levels, we could retest higher levels near $208 & $211. After that, we’re back near ATH around $215.
If we reject around $202 / $200, we may retest lower levels near $192.5 / $190 / $185.

$AWK: American Water Works

We had a bit of a pullback on $AWK, but as long as we’re above the monthly trendline breakout, we aren’t too concerned. We have support around $136.5 and $135.8. If we lose that zone, we could retest lower levels near $133.9 and $132.5 before $130.
That said, all of our support is just above $125. We’re comfortable holding shares unless that support gets broken, but that is some serious drawdown!
Once we see acceptance above $140’s again we can look for targets like $145 and above. For now, we’ll see how it does near support and go from there.

$MU: Micron

The chart is not the prettiest right now, but we have key levels around $1000, $1040, and $1060 that we really care about, because if we get acceptance above those, we could see a violent move up towards $1140 / $1160. That’s pretty much all we’re looking for this week on $MU.
Premiums die quickly on this name; make sure you’re safe and practicing proper risk management if you’re deciding to trade this one as well, but keep it on your watchlist if we start seeing some strength out of the gate!