Last week was a tale of two halves. Early strength in tech and semis, driven by the ongoing AI rally, gave way to a rough Friday selloff as April CPI came in hot at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest reading since May 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.55%, its highest level in nearly a year. Cerebras ($CBRS) surged 68% on its Nasdaq debut Thursday, while Boeing extended losses after a China jet order announcement came in below expectations.

Over the weekend, the Iran ceasefire situation remained unresolved after Trump's meetings with President Xi yielded no progress on the conflict, keeping Brent crude elevated above $109. Fed rate hike odds for 2026 jumped to 45%, compared to just 1% a month ago, as Kevin Warsh officially takes the reins from Powell.

This week is loaded: NVIDIA reports Wednesday after market, with Home Depot on Tuesday, and Walmart, Target, Lowe's, and Deere all reporting later in the week. FOMC minutes also drop on Wednesday. Iran headlines and oil prices remain the macro wildcards to watch.

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Broad Market Analysis

/SPX500USD: SP500

The SP500 found some resistance last week pushing past $7500, but closed the week at the previous week’s close.
For this week, if $7400 can hold, look for a move higher to $7500. Anything above $7500 and expect a move to $7650/$7750/ and potentially higher in the future.
If $7400 cannot hold as support this week, look for a move lower down to $7250/$7030-$7000. Anything below $7000 and expect a move lower down to $6800 and potentially lower in the future.

$S5FI: SP500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average

Short term breadth fell lower last week after it was rejected from 45% resistance, which is a continued downwards move from the week before.
If 45% remains as resistance this week, look for a move lower down to 40%/35%/30%. Anything below 30% and expect a move to 20% and potentially lower in the future.
If 45% can be broken and held as support, look for a move higher to 55%/65% and potentially higher in the future.

$S5TH: SP500 Stocks Above 200-Day Average

Long term breadth broke lower last week and ended the week right at major support of 50% to close the week.
For this week, if 50% can hold as support, look for a move higher to 52.50%/55%/57.50%/and 60% in the future.
If 50% cannot hold as support, look for a move down to 45% and 40% in the future to test the lows of trend.

$US30: Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow got rejected from $50000 this week, with a pretty harsh denial to end the week below last week’s close as well.
For this week, if $50000 remains as resistance, look for a move lower down to $49000/$48000/$47000/$46000-$45000 in the future.
Considering the Dow has been the weakest index, with a failure to breach the all time highs despite every other index doing so, expect some further downside compared to the rest of the market if it does break down this week.
If $50000 can be broken and be held as support, look for a move higher to $50500/$51000/$51500 in the future.

$IXIC: Nasdaq Composite

The Nasdaq perfectly touched the -0.382 last week and failed to breach higher despite an attempt from the bulls during the week.
If $26350 or so cannot be broken and is held as resistance, look for a move lower down to $26000/$25000/and potentially down to $24000-$23750 to test the previous all time high.
If $26350 can be broken and held as support, look for a move higher to $26500/$27000 and potentially higher in the future.

$US2000: Russell 2000

The Russell found some major downside last week after it was rejected from the -0.382 at $2900, with a breakdown below $2800 to end the week.
For this week, if $2800 cannot be broken and held as support, look for a move to $2730-$2700 in the future. Anything below $2700 and expect a move to $2600/$2550/$2500 in the future.
If $2800 can be broken and held as support, look for a move to $2900. Anything above $2900 with a hold of support should lead to new highs up to $3000/$3200 in the future.

$VIX: Volatility Index

The VIX made a move higher last week and closed the week above $18 as support.
If $18 can be held as support in the future, expect a move to $20. Anything above $20 and look for a move to $23.50 in the future.
If $18 cannot hold as support, look for a move lower down to $16/$14 in the future.
Considering the VIX is attempting to make a higher low here, if it can catch some bids be ready for the VIX to move higher quickly here in the future.

$XAUUSD: Spot Gold

Gold broke lower last week, with another failed move to break above $4750 last week.
With that, if $4500 can hold as support this week, look for a move to retest $4750 in the future.
If $4500 cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move to $4400/$4200/$4000 in the future.
If Gold is putting in a new lower high, expect a move to the low of trend without a doubt. Anything below that point and expect a more extended move lower in the future.

$XAGUSD: Spot Silver

Silver failed to move higher last week after it attempted to breakout above $85/$90, which ultimately failed with a close near $75 support to end the week.
If $85-$90 remains as the last lower high in the trend, expect some future downside on Silver for a broader correction in the future.
For this week, if $75 can hold as support, look for a move to $80/$85 in the future to test the highs of trend.
If $75 cannot hold as support, look for a move lower down to $70/$65/$60 in the future.

$DXY: US Dollar Index

The US Dollar is continuing to look more and more bullish, with a continued hold of the golden pocket here near $98 over the past few weeks.
If $98 can continue to be held as support in the future, look for a move higher to $100. Anything above $100 and expect a move to $101/$102/$103 in the future.
If $98 cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move down to $96/$94 in the future.
This is looking really bullish to say the least, which could be bad for risk assets in the future, so make sure to continue to monitor this chart.

$USOIL: Crude Oil

Crude Oil managed to break over $100 last week and hold it into the weekly close, which puts Oil in a position to move higher here in the future.
If $100 can hold as support, look for a move to $105/$110/$115 in the future.
If $100 cannot hold as support, look for a move to $95. Anything below $95 and expect a move down to $90/$85/$80 in the future.
Oil looks like it could be setting up for a move higher here in the future with the continued hold of support over the past few weeks. If $115 were to break, expect moves up to $120/$125/$130 in the future.

$US02Y: US Government Bonds - 2-Year Yield

The 2-Year moved higher last week, with a break over 4% leading to an explosive close into the end of the week.
For this week, if 4% can continue to hold as support, look for a move to 4.15%-4.30% in the future. Anything above 4.30% and expect a move to 4.50% in the future.
If 4% cannot hold as support in the future, look for a move lower down to 3.80% in the future. Any move below 3.80% and expect a move to the range between 3.40%-3.60% in the future as well.

$US10Y: US Government Bonds - 10-Year Yield

The 10-Year broke 4.50% last week, with it closing right at resistance of 4.60% to end the week.
With that, if 4.60% can be broken this week and held as support, look for a move higher to 4.80%/5%/5.30% in the future.
If 4.60% remains as resistance, look for a test of 4.50%. Anything below 4.50% and expect a move to the range between 4.20%-4.30% in the future as well.

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Technical Analysis

$TSLA: Tesla

Still a great-looking chart even after the selloff near the end of the week. We’ve got support between $418 and $411 to watch for a bounce off support. We’re looking for acceptance above $434.26 for continuation up to $442.25. If it has legs, we’ll be looking to target higher levels near $449 and $451.25. Once we’re over these levels, we have multiple levels between $453 and $458 as resistance.
If we capitulate rather than bounce, we can look to target lower levels near $405.40 and $400.88. The chart looks strong, but if we’re selling off, we have $392.95 even lower.

$MSFT: Microsoft

This setup on the 4h / daily timeframe looks pretty great. We’ve got a key level at $427, if we see acceptance over that, we can get a quick trim at our next level near $430.75, then look to target upper levels starting at $440, $446, and $450.
We have support at $411.37 to watch for a bounce. If not there, then just below it, around $409 / $407.7. Below that are a bunch of back-to-back support levels as well. So we aren’t really looking to short this name just yet, given all these supports below us.

$CRWV: Coreweave

Not much has changed here since our last update; we’re still sitting at around a 40% gain on the shares we picked up in late March. We have support at $107.30. \
As long as we hold that we’re looking for acceptance above $109.42 for level retests near $111.10 and $113.7 before our higher targets near $118 and $120.33. If we see continuation, we can look to target $125.25, $126.71 and $132.2 as our final targets.
If we don’t hold support around $107.3 / $105.6, then we have a key support level at $102.32. If we break that, we could quickly sell off back towards $93.35. We want more than 40% on these shares, but we just might stop out at break-even because of that.

$CRWD: CrowdStrike

We’re nearing 42% on our shares that we picked up on April 16th before the trendline breakout. The growth has been absolutely incredible, but we have to expect some sort of pullback or consolidation phase after 5 weeks of straight parabolic candles.
Some profit-taking here at all-time highs seems like an obvious decision.
We have support near $573.5 and $560, but I think our core consolidation area might be between $538 and $550. If we lose those, our next level isn't until around $500.
We’re planning on holding these shares and enjoying the ATH continuation, but 40% in 1 month is an incredible swing if anyone fully jumped out!

$ABNB: Airbnb

I’ve been posting about / buying this setup for months, but I’m finally starting to unwind my ABNB position. I’ve sold more than two-thirds of my total allocation.
I’m still holding a small swing position, but I expected more strength during the initial breakout, and I’m comparing the ABNB position with recent new swings like CRWD and CRWV and realizing we can come back to ABNB when it starts to wake up.
We have support near $132.5; if we lose that, we could retest lower levels near $130 and $129.27, then even lower near $127 and $125. For the bulls, we need acceptance above $136.16 for a potential push towards $142.85 and $145.75. Above that, we're getting interested in longs again on ABNB.

$POET: Poet Tech

Just want to preface this analysis by saying 90% of the charts/setups we cover are on blue chips with very manageable risk, high liquidity, and macro bullish trends.
POET does not fall under that 90%, but it’s really starting to heat up this year. We’re clearing monthly lower highs like butter at the moment.
We just fell 23% after earnings. We have STRONG support near $15.25 to $15. Below that, we have multiple support levels from $14.4 to $13.30. I’m interested in picking up some shares around $14 with a stop around $13. We have more support near $11.3 and $10.60. We’re looking for a bounce near one of these, then acceptance above $17 for continuation up into $20.70. This is a high-risk, high-reward setup with small size.

$AXTI: AXT Inc

Charts like this are why POET is on my radar. This company was trading at $3 last year and just set NATH at $134. That also adds an element of being overextended, but the hourly looks like we could see continuation.
We’re backtesting the trendline break right now. We are looking for a bounce with acceptance above $127.3, followed by level retests near $129.96 and $130.99. After that, we’ve got ATH at $134, then psychological targets like $135, $137.50, $140, etc. We don’t have support until $104.30 and $102.96 at the moment. It would be safer to wait for some new support to form, but we might not get that opportunity, given how aggressively this stock moves!

$ONDS: Ondas Inc

This is another name that’s been hot this year. We’ve been consolidating between $9 and $11 for a few weeks now. We’re looking for acceptance over $11 to kickstart a move.
We’d have a key level retest near $11.50, which could trigger a breakout up into $11.97, $12.14, $12.50. If we’re testing $12.50, then we may as well test that weekly high around $13.7, which would be trading higher than its weekly highs back from March 2021, and would probably start trying to test that ATH level near $16.
We have support near $10 and $9.50 to watch for a bounce. If we don’t bounce, we can target $9.40, $9.30, and $9.07 before $8.80 and $8.5 as the final short targets.

$IREN: Iren Limited

We had a great “breakout, retest, continuation” play here on IREN. Now we’re seeing a weekly inside bar. I wish it were a hammer in the opposite direction, though. Regardless, IREN just lost support around $54.20, which is our key level.
If we retest that and break down, we could pull back to levels near $50 and $46.50. If we see acceptance above it, we could retest $56.7, $57.5, and $58.40 before going for some of our real targets near $60.8, $62, and $63.85.
Definitely want to be cautious because of that hammer, but the overall trend is bullish!

$H: Hyatt Hotels Corp

We’re seeing strong resistance between $170 - $175 on this stock, which means if we get acceptance above that, it could yield a large move to the upside. Looks like a cup and handle on the daily chart with a nice trendline to watch on the hourly.
Looking for acceptance over $170.42 for a quick level retest near $171.20, then a strong push towards $172.6 and $174.75. Above that, we’ll hold runners for $180 potential.
We have support levels near $167.7 and $167.15 to watch for a bounce. If we lose those, we could look to target $165.5 / $163.75, and if it really breaks down, $159.25.