Market volatility remains elevated amid a rapidly shifting global landscape. Ongoing geopolitical tensions — including U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's responses, the Pakistan-Afghanistan border crisis, and the continuing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine — are driving uncertainty across energy markets, supply chains, and global investor sentiment. Threats to the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle East escalation continue to pose significant risks to oil prices and global stability. In this environment, effective risk management is essential — downside risks are always present, but they are especially dangerous during periods of extreme volatility like we are experiencing now.

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Broad Market Analysis

/SPX500USD: SP500

The SP500 gapped down on market open, with the key support of $6800 being lost as of writing this analysis.
For this week, if $6600 cannot hold as support, look for a move to test $6500. Anything below $6500 and targets would be $6400/$6200/$6150 in the future.
If $6600 can hold as support this week, look for a move to retest $6800. If $6800 can be held as support, expect a move higher to $6900/$7000 in the future.

$S5FI: SP500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average

Short term breadth broke lower last week after it failed to hold 55% support, with it closing down near 40%-45% to end the week.
For this week, if 45% can be broken and held as support, look for a retest of 55% in the future.
If 45% remains as resistance, look for a retest of 40%. Anything under 40% and expect a move to 35%/30%/20% and potentially lower in the future.

$S5TH: SP500 Stocks Above 200-Day Average

Long term breadth also broke lower last week after it failed to hold onto 60% support and failed to break over 65% resistance over the past few weeks.
For this week, if long term breadth can hold 55% as support, expect a retest of 60%. Anything over 60% and expect a move to 65% in the future.
If 55% cannot hold as support, look for a move lower down to 52.50%/50%. Anything below 50% and expect a move to 40%/30% in the future.

$US30: Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow gapped down at market open as well, with it currently sitting below $47000.
For this week, if $47000 can be reclaimed as support, look for a move to $47250/$47500/$48000 in the future.
If $47000 remains as resistance, look for a move lower down to $46000/$45000 in the future to test the previous all time high.

$IXIC: Nasdaq Composite

Unfortunately the $IXIC is not a futures based product, but as of right now the Nasdaq futures are down over 1% with all the other major indexes.
For this week, if $22000 cannot hold as support, look for a move lower down to $21500/$21000/$20500/$20000 in the future.
If $22000 can hold as support, look for a move to $22500/$23000 in the future. Anything over $23000 and targets would be $23500/$23750 to test the previous all time high.

$US2000: Russell 2000

The Russell is currently testing the previous all time high here upon market open, with a gap down below $2500 to open this week.
For this week, if $2475 can hold as support, look for a move higher to $2500. Anything over $2500 and expect a move to $2550/$2600 and potentially higher in the future.
If $2475 cannot hold as support this week, look for a move lower down to $2450/$2400/$2350/$2300 in the future.

$VIX: Volatility Index

The VIX had an insane week last week after it gapped up over $25 and managed to maintain its momentum with a close right under $30.
Considering the state of the market, if the VIX opens above $30 tomorrow it wouldn’t be a surprise in the slightest.
For this week, if $30 remains as resistance, expect a retest of $27.50/$25/$23.50/$22/$20 in the future.
If $30 can be broken and held as support, look for a move higher to $35/$40 and potentially higher in the future.

$XAUUSD: Spot Gold

Gold failed to move higher last week after it gapped up above $5300, but failed to close higher with a close near $5200 or so.
For this week, if $5300 can be broken and held as support, look for a move higher to $5400/$5500/$5600 and potentially higher in the future.
If $5300 remains as resistance, look for a move down to $5000. Anything below $5000 and targets would be $4750/$4500/$4400/$4250/$4000 in the future.

$XAGUSD: Spot Silver

Silver failed to move higher last week after it gapped up right into $95 resistance, which led to a swift move lower to end the week right at $85.
For this week, if $85 remains as resistance, look for a move lower down to $80/$75/$70/$65 in the future.
If $85 can be held as support, look for a retest of $90/$95 in the future.

$DXY: US Dollar Index

The US Dollar is finding some bids right now on market open, with it nearing $100 resistance to begin the week here.
For this week, as long as $98 holds as support, look for a test of $100. Anything over $100 and targets would be $101/$102/$103 and potentially higher in the future.
If $100 remains as resistance, look for a retest of $98. Anything below $98 and targets would be $96/$94 in the future.

$USOIL: Crude Oil

I quite literally can’t type fast enough on Crude Oil at the moment, with it currently sitting 15% up as of the time of writing this.
First of all, what an incredible respect of technical analysis for Crude Oil with the breakout of the downtrending trendline and the breakout above $67.50 major resistance leading to higher prices.
Obviously no one can anticipate this sort of move, but with the Iran War developing day by day, expect volatility to continue.
For this week, if $100 can hold as support from the gap up, expect tests of $105/$110/$112.50 and potentially higher up to $115/$120/$125/$127.50 in the future.
If $100 cannot hold as support, look for a gap fill down to $95/$90 and potentially lower in the future.

$US02Y: US Government Bonds - 2-Year Yield

The 2-Year faked out everyone with a failure to go lower and a massive bullish engulfing candle off of 3.40% to end the week.
For this week, if 3.50% can hold as support, look for a test of 3.60%. Anything over 3.60% and targets would be 3.80%/4%/4.15% in the future.
If 3.50% cannot hold as support this week, look for a retest of 3.40%. Any confirmed move below 3.40% and targets would be 3.25%/3%/2.75% in the future.

$US10Y: US Government Bonds - 10-Year Yield

The 10-Year managed to recover off of 3.90% support, with a close above 4.10% last week to end the week.
For this week, if 4.10% can hold as support, look for a move to 4.20%/4.25%/4.30% in the future. If 4.30% can be broken, look for a move to 4.50%/4.60% in the future.
If 4.10% cannot hold as support this week, look for a retest of supports below at 4%/3.90% in the future. Anything below 3.90% and targets would be 3.75%/3.60% in the future.
The main driver behind rates going up would be Crude Oil and Gas prices climbing on the back of the Iran War. As long as Energy prices remain elevated, the FED has no choice but to hold rates higher, so expect some major volatility and uncertainty in rates for the foreseeable future.

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Technical Analysis

BA: Boeing

Boeing has been in a downtrend, but it's testing the lower end of this channel here and attempting to hold support around $231.
If it can break out of this downtrend and accept over $236.33, we could see a shift in momentum.
Over $236.33, we have targets at $240.26, $244.96, $247.86, and room to test the highs at $254.35.
Now if it fails to hold current levels and breaks below $223.75, we could see $218.74 and $215.34.

$SNOW: Snowflake

$SNOW stands out for me this upcoming week! It was one of the stronger names, although indices were ranging, so it has the potential of shifting its downtrend.
The monthly has the potential of pivoting here if we look at the higher time frames. Currently testing resistance around $182.25, and if it can break above this level, we could see a shift in momentum.
Acceptance over $182.25, we have targets at $189.2, $195.68, $201.57 with room to $206.
If it fails to break out and weakness comes in, breaking below $174.22, we could see targets to $165.66, $156.12, and $146.31.

$TSLA: Tesla

The gap down on Friday messed up the setup a little bit, but we’re still watching for a breakout of this falling wedge on TSLA. With the S&P closing below its range, this could very well chop and downtrend for the near future. However, acceptance over $407.67 could give us level retests near $417.4 and $420.
We have support near $391.64 and $386.72 to watch for a bounce, or for capitulation into lower levels near $362, which would be a huge drop from the current price.

CMG: Chipotle

A trendline is forming here on the CMG daily chart. We filled the gap after the October post-earnings report gap down, but we’ve been in a short-term downtrend since testing those pre-earnings prices. If we can get a close above trendline resistance, then we might be making the next leg up!
Below $35.3, and we’ll look to target levels near $34.84, $33.70, and $31.05.
Above $37.33, and we’ll look to target levels near $38.30, $39, and $40.
Probably needs another week to consolidate before we get the move, especially with a new low on this recent range we’re watching.

$AMZN: Amazon

We were waiting for that $211.80 pop on AMZN for a while, and we finally got it, but we still want to target the upper levels near $222.30 and $224.9. Looking for acceptance above $215.43 for a quick level test near $217.1; if we see acceptance above that, we might retest the other levels near our trendline.
Not looking for downside on AMZN unless we clear the 2/16 lows just below $200. Probably won’t see that this week, so not even going to include lower levels yet!

$LLY: Eli Lilly & Company

We missed the macro breakout on this back in October with this bull flag on the monthly chart, but there's still opportunities with this little pullback we’re seeing over all time highs, which this current monthly candle wicked just above the previous body ATH.
We have strong resistance around $1050 - $1060, but over that, we have clear room to retest levels near $1110 / $1120, so the R/R is there for a swing at those higher levels. However, we’re pretty far from that trigger.
In the meantime, looking for a $1006 level retest if we see acceptance over $990.60 or looking for rejection around $990.60 with level retests to the downside near $970.

$ABNB: Airbnb

Not much has changed here from last week. We thought we might be getting acceptance with that moonshot to $139 on Thursday morning, but we’re still hanging out within our consolidation. We’re still holding shares for a long-term breakout or stop loss near $115.
For the interim, we’re looking for acceptance over $134 to go retest levels near $136 and $137.60. If we see acceptance over those, then we’re looking for retests near $139.4 and $140.20 before breaking above the trendline and kickstarting the larger move.
If we capitulate below $132, then we could easily retest levels near $130 or $125.