Weekly Watchlist

February 12-FEBRUARY 16, 2024

This week holds some major economic announcements, with CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales all being reported this week.

Additionally, there is a host of FED speakers this week as well, so make sure to trade safe and expect volatility.

Top Economic Announcements

  1. FED Michelle Bowman Speaks Monday @9:20 AM ET
  2. NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations Reported Monday @11:00 AM ET
  3. FED Neel Kashkari Speaks Monday @1:00 PM ET
  4. Federal Budget Balance (January) Reported Monday @2:00 PM ET
  5. Core CPI (YoY) (January) Reported Tuesday @8:30 AM ET
  6. Core CPI (MoM) (January) Reported Tuesday @8:30 AM ET
  7. CPI (YoY) (January) Reported Tuesday @8:30 AM ET
  8. CPI (MoM) (January) Reported Tuesday @8:30 AM ET
  9. Jobless Claims Reported Thursday @8:30 AM ET
  10. Core Retail Sales (MoM) (January) Reported Thursday @8:30 AM ET
  11. Retail Sales (MoM) (January) Reported Thursday @8:30 AM ET
  12. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (February) Reported Thursday @8:30 AM ET
  13. Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index (February) Reported Thursday @8:30 AM ET
  14. FED Christopher Waller Speaks Thursday @1:15 PM ET
  15. FED Raphael Bostic Speaks Thursday @7:00 PM ET
  16. Core PPI (MoM) (January) Reported Friday @8:30 AM ET
  17. PPI (MoM) (January) Reported Friday @8:30 AM ET
  18. Consumer Inflation Expectations (February) Reported Friday @10:00 AM ET
  19. FED Mary Daly Speaks Friday @12:10 PM ET

Other Market Notes

Volatility is going to continue to dominate the markets with fundamental factors such as the ongoing Ukraine-Russian War, Inflation headwinds, and instability around the globe. Future downside risks are 100% a possibility at this point, using the proper risk management techniques could quickly help to offset any losses.

Events & Livestream Schedule

Upcoming Earnings Releases

Economic Calendar

Broad Market Analysis

/SPX500USD: SP500

  1. The SP500 closed higher for the week once again, with new all time highs put in across the board.
  2. Expect the SP500 to continue this insane uptrend as long as 4800 holds. Under 4800 would open the door to lower prices of 4750/4700.
  3. Under 4700 would call for even lower prices, with targets of 4650/4600/4500/4400 and potentially lower.

/S5FI: SP500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average

  1. Short term breadth is still struggling here even despite the market absolutely ripping higher over the past few weeks, which once again highlights the strength of big tech and the bigger names in the index carrying everyone else.
  2. With that, as long as short term breadth can hold 55% and break over 65% this week, look for a move up to 72.50%-75% in the future. Over 75% will open the door to higher targets of 80%/85%/90% as well.
  3. If short term breadth continues to get denied from 65% and breaks below 55%, look for a further move lower to test 45%/40%/35% in the future.

/S5TH: SP500 Stocks Above 200-Day Average

  1. Long term breadth is also struggling here, with it ranging here between 65%-75% at the moment.
  2. If long term breadth is unable to break over 75% or continues to set lower highs, look for a move to test 65%. Under 65% and targets would be 60%/57.50%/52.50%/50% in the future.
  3. If long term breadth can continue to hold onto 65% and break over 75% in the future, this would open the door to higher targets of 80%/85%/90% in the future.

$US30: Dow Jones Industrial Average

  1. The Dow also hit new all time highs last week on the weekly, with it moving closer to our fib targets at 39500/40000/40750 on a daily basis.
  2. As long as 38000 holds going forward, the Dow will continue to rip higher for the foreseeable future.
  3. Under 38000 would call for short term downside to 37500/37000. Under 37000 would break the micro uptrend and targets would be 36500/36000/35500/35000 in the future.

$IXIC: Nasdaq Composite

  1. The Nasdaq is on the verge of breaking to new all time highs here, with a continued hold of 15400-15500 last week leading to a move higher to test 16000.
  2. If the Nasdaq can break over 16000 and hold above 16000, look for a move to 16250 to test the previous all time high. Over 16250 and targets are up at the fib levels above at 18500/19500/21750 in the future.
  3. If the Nasdaq is unable to break over 16000-16250 this week and gets rejected, look for a move lower to re-test 15400-15500. Any confirmed move underneath 15400 should lead to a re-test of 15000/14500-14600 in the future as well.

$US2000: Russell 2000

  1. The Russell is actually looking really solid here with a beautiful bullish engulfing candle on the weekly last week and a close above 2000.
  2. If 2000 can hold going forward as support, look for a move up to 2050. Over 2050 and targets would be 2100/2130-2150 in the future.
  3. If the Russell is unable to hold over 2000 this week for whatever reason, look for a move lower to test the last higher low of trend between 1900-1950. Anything under 1900 would open the door to further downside, with targets at 1850/1800/1750/1700 in the future.

$VIX: Volatility Index

  1. The VIX once again got denied from $14 resistance last week, which is no surprise considering the trend over the past couple of months.
  2. If the VIX can break over $14, expect a move to $16/$18 in the future.
  3. If the VIX cannot break over $14, expect sideways price action or a move to $12. Under $12 and targets would be $10/$9/$8 in the future.

$XAUUSD: Spot Gold

  1. Gold has been unable to make any moves above 2050 over the past few weeks, but the trend remains strong despite the fact.
  2. With this nice new plotted trendline, as long as Gold can hold over 2000 and respect the demand line, there is a nice ascending triangle pattern forming here. If those both hold, look for a move up to 2050. Over 2050 would open the door to re-testing resistances above at 2075/2100/2125/2150.
  3. If Gold is unable to hold onto the demand line and ultimately breaks below 2000, look for a move to 1975. Anything under 1975 and Gold moves lower to test supports at 1940-1950/1930/1900/1880/1850/1830 in the future.

$DXY: US Dollar Index

  1. The US Dollar is back-testing the range breakout above $103-$104 from last week, which is a good sign for the time being.
  2. As long as $103 holds, expect a move higher to $105/$106 in the future. Over $106 and targets would be $108/$110.
  3. If $103 cannot hold in the future, expect a move lower to $102/$101/$100 in the future.
  4. Under $100 and the US Dollar would move way lower to targets of $98/$96 in the future.

$USOIL: Crude Oil

  1. Crude Oil is a perfect example of why the long term trend and short term trends are so important, with another new higher low being put in last week leading to a close near $77.50-$80.
  2. If Crude Oil can hold onto the new higher low at $72.50 going forward, look for a move to test $80 resistance. Anything over $80 and the next target would be $82.50, and anything above that opens the door to retesting $85/$87.50/$90/$92.50/$95 in the future.
  3. If Crude Oil is unable to hold onto $72.50 in the future, this would open the door to a re-test of the last macro higher low at $67.50. Anything under $67.50 would also be very bad for Crude Oil, with targets at $65/$62.50/$60 in the future.

$US02Y: US Government Bonds (2 Year)

  1. The 2-Year backfilled the gap up from last week and closed higher near major resistance of 4.50% to end the week last week.
  2. If the 2-Year can break over 4.50% this week, look for a move higher to 4.75% in the future. Anything above 4.75% would also open the door to higher targets of 4.85%/5%/5.10% in the future.
  3. If the 2-Year is unable to break over 4.50%, look for a move lower to retest the double bottom at 4.15%-4.20%.
  4. Anything below 4.15% and the 2-Year will look for a move lower to test 4%/3.80% in the future.

$US10Y: US Government Bonds (10 Year)

  1. The 10-Year also closed higher after retesting the open of last week’s weekly candle, which is a strong sign for the bulls going forward.
  2. If the 10-Year can successfully break over 4.25% and hold it as support, look for a major move higher to 4.50%/4.60%/4.80%/5% in the future.
  3. If the 10-Year is unable to break over 4.25% in the future, look for a move lower to retest the double bottom at 3.80%.
  4. Anything under 3.80% and the 10-Year will look for a move lower to 3.75%/3.65%/3.50%/3.30% in the future.

Technical Analysis

$TSLA: Tesla

  1. Last week was a fantastic start for our long term Tesla breakout on the weekly chart.
  2. We’re looking at the 30m chart right now, we backtested trendline resistance perfectly and have been climbing ever since. We closed on Friday right at a level of $193.60.
  3. We’re looking for continuation over that this week for a move up to $195.75 and $196.55. We have two more levels near those targets and they are $198.87 and $207.08.
  4. If we get this continuation then we have a gap from $198 to $207 which is enticing.

$ABNB: Airbnb

  1. Pretty disappointed in how we closed on Friday thanks to Expedia earnings.
  2. We looked primed for a three bar play breakout on the weekly chart which would also be the catalyst for our inverse head and shoulders breakout. The main trade here is still a trigger over $149.71 up into our first target at $154.29.
  3. After that, we’re just looking to swing runners.
  4. We’ve also been adding shares under $150 in case we really breakout from this pattern.

$PYPL: PayPal

  1. PayPal got wrecked after a pretty decent earnings report.
  2. We’ve been chopping for 4 weeks around this trendline resistance breakout.
  3. We’re definitely a little more pessimistic that we’ll actually get this weekly falling wedge breakout, but we’ll be continuing to watch this name for a long term investment due to the R/R of a ~ $60 entry and ~ $100 profit target.

$AAPL: Apple

  1. Throwing this on the watchlist for a potential short, we’ve got a 30m bear flag forming on Apple and an easy trigger of $187.80 for puts and or shorts.
  2. Targets below $187.80 would be $185 and then $179.25.
  3. Fair warning, we have very wide targets below the trigger as our only real level after $187.80 is $179.25 and the $185 mark would just be a psychological trim if this does pan out to the downside.
  4. That being said, we can also trigger over $189.60 and we have very clear targets of $191.94, $194.69, and $196.00 above that trigger.

$AMD: Advanced Micro Devices

  1. We really like this pattern forming on the AMD 1h / 4h charts.
  2. Looking for a breakout above a key level of $173.85 this week for continuation back into ATH if possible. We’ll be using $179.07 and $184.92 as targets above our trigger.
  3. If we trigger to the downside, look for shorts below $169.31 with targets at $166.46, $164.74, and then finally $158.60 if we really start to sell off.
  4. Definitely a 50/50 on where we breakout since we’re still consolidating, but this sector has been uptrending for quite some time and the overall market is at ATH, I feel like it’s safe so say that there's some long bias headed into next week.

$COIN: Coinbase

  1. Last week COIN set a very nice weekly failure to go lower leading to a rally and closing an outside bar.
  2. The daily is now sitting at a resistance meaning it would not shock us if we had a slight consolidation here around 143..
  3. Acceptance over 143 leads me to look for a test of the previous daily high at 159.6. Some closer targets on the way there are 146 & 150.83.
  4. If we are able to get a continued break out over last week's highs we have higher targets at 186.2 & 176.18.

$MU: Micron

  1. MU is looking interesting here on the daily and weekly charts with the failure to go lowers on both.
  2. Continued holds of 85.15 and acceptance over 85.62 would provide conviction for longs.
  3. The first upside target is going to be the previous daily highs at 87 followed by 88 & 89.37.
  4. If we are able to see upside continuation in this name we have targets at 91.39 & 93.61 in the following weeks.

$ZM: Zoom Video

  1. ZM has been ranging on the weekly between 63 & 74 with the occasional spike further in each direction.
  2. We have formed an inverse head and shoulders on the weekly chart after a weekly failure to go lower.
  3. For entry I’ll be watching continued holds above 65.38 leading to a test and possible break above 66.46.
  4. Over 66.46 we have resistance at 67.39 followed by 68.80 & 70.
  5. Acceptance over 70 gives us eyes on the top of the range with higher targets at 71, 72 & 73.44.

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